Pirate Trading

Ok, for any one who might have possible stumbled on this insignficant speck of a blog in the universe of the internet and wondered if I was ever going to make any dough, well, it finally happened!

Wednesday was a very nasty trading day in the es. Had a very tight range and none of my signals worked well. Most of the time when an holp/lohp would trigger the market would move too fast & not come back to my entry. Had one b/e lohp paper trade in the morning, short @ 1312.50, pp @ 11.50, then stopped out at the b/e of 13.50.

Did have a paper long holp @ 1308.75 @ 3:56, pp @ 9.75 @ 3:42, then stopped out @ 8.75 for a +2 gainer. Also did the 3:52 reverse that timed out for a measly +.5. Total paper trade was +2.5 which was not bad considering the market action.

Thursday started out so-so. Was watching the globex early & waited a little too long to react to the long signals I saw on the 3 & 5 min charts. Finally put in an order to buy @ 1303.75 & got long @8:00. Left for the office & was still in that area when I got setup there, only to be stopped out a few minutes later @ 1.75 for a 2 pt loss. Kept watching tho as I thought we might see a gap close today being thursday (82% success) & nearly a 6 point gap to close. Got long on a perfect holp setup @ 1301.50 & then watched as es finally worked in my favor & ran all the way up to the gap close & beyond. I tightened my stop & was taken out @ 9.50 for a +8 point score....YEEAAAAHHHS!!!!!

Bonds were also working better as I entered long @ 106 25, pp @ 27 & out the runner @ 29. No oporunity to reload today but happy anyway...+6 ticks.

Had another holp buy @ 1315.25 @ 2:35 and exited as the mkt came back to my elevated stop out 2 17.25 for a 2 pt gainer.

The last trade of the day was an attempt at the 3:52 trade. Th mkt had sold off over the last 1/2 hour so I went long @ 1315.75. After some girations, went as high as 16.75 briefly, then came back & took me out at my elevated stop @ 14.50 (musthave put in the wrong #?). So, all in all a very good day, +8.25 points on the es & 6 ticks on the bonds. Sweet!

Monday was the first day after options expiration and was quite weird in the es. The put/call fluctuated and was not reliable still. Took me a while to realize this, after I heard a faint voice (teq) in my head warning me last week before he left on vacation to watch out for this very thing on Thursday through Monday! Paper trades were 3 breakevens, a + 2 and a -4. All were holp/lohp trades except for 1 5 minute squeeze. The market just was not conducive to trading today. The bonds did work, however, and the new system worked to some extent. I entered short @ 107 31, pp @29 for +2 ticks, reloaded 1 car @ 31, pp'd again @ 29, then exited the runner at the full +4 tick target. The net on this trade is the same as if I had just left the 2 cars run to the full 4 ticks. However, after the last 2 weeks I wanted to work my new system to lock in as much as possible. I am considering trading with 3 contracts, and taking 2 off at 2 tick intervals, reloading them if possible and letting the runner go to the full profit target. Will have to noodle this scenario through a bit more. So the totals for Monday were +8 ticks real $$ in bonds and -2 points in the es.

Tuesday I was not able to trade from 8am on but was lucky enough to catch a globex trade from Fooser, long from 1314.25. I had just gotten up & fired up Tradestation at a few minutes after 5 when I noticed Fooser's call. My indicators on the 3 & 5 min charts were just starting to indicate a long so I jumped in with him. It took a while as globex trades tend to do but all of the indicators were pointing up & we rode it up to 16.00 before being stopped out for a 1 .75 winner. Not a lot but I will take it, especially after last week. After reviewing the charts it appears that the bond trade would have worked nicely & quite possible would have been a repeat of Monday, 1 pp, a reload, a second pp & then the exit at the full 4 tick target. Oh well, we'll look to make some green with it tomorrow. The charts on the es did not indicate much opportunity for profitable trading with t he exception of 1 possible holp trade in the afternoon for 4 points.

Well, no one said trading was easy. Teq has reported that 90% of trades blow up in the first year. After a week like this one, I can see why. Here is the run down from Tuesday on.

Tuesday: 4/18: only 1 es trade, sold 14:25 at 3:52, out @ 13.75 at time limit, +.5 x 2 contracts.
Had a paper sell @ 1298.50 (LOHP) @ 10:15. Reversed @1299.50 (-1 x2) PP@ 1300.50, moved stop up as es ran; 98.50, 99.50, 1300.50, 1.50, and stopped out there for a net of +1. (Note: had tightened stop due to several high ticks. After stop out, es continued higher).

Second paper trade was a buy @ 1308.75 (another HOLP I think) @2:50. PP @ 8.75, stop moved up @ 1 pt increments to 14.25. Stopped out there for a net of +5.5.

Tuesday totals Real$$ -.5. Paper trade +6.5! (Note: Bond trade did not hit)

Wednesday 4/19: Real $$ globex trade short @1316.50 @5.58 off 3 & 5 min phase. Stopped mailto:u0@18.25 for a net of -2 x 2 contracts. Bond trade was short at 106 31. PP @ 106 29 for +2 ticks. Reloded back @ 31 & PP again at 29. runnner stopped out at 107 00, -1 teck for a net +3 ticks.

Paper trades were HOLP @ 1311 @10:49. PP @1312, stop move up in steps to 1313. several high ticks happend & then stop out here for a net of +3 points. Next paper trade was LOHP short @ 1313.25 @ 11:15, PP @ 12.25 @ 11:19; out @ b/e. Had a second paper LOHP short @ 1313.50 @ 2:05, pp @12.50, stopped out @ b/e

Wednesdays totals: Real $$ +3 bond ticks. Paper trades +3 points

Thurday 4/20: Pilly Fed day so not bond trade. Only trades were paper: HOLP buy @14.75 @ 9:46, pp @ 15.75. Moved stop to 14.75 for economic release @ 10:00. es ran up & moved up stops to 22.75. Stopped out there for a +9 point gainer!! Second paper trade was a long @1318 @ 3:52. Out @ 1317 (time) for -1 pont.

Thursday total: paper trades +8 es points!!

Friday 4/21: Bond trade sold 107 07 @12:28, pp @ 05 @12:46. Reloaded @1:15; pp again @1:43. Dumped runner @ 107 13 for -6 ticks, net -2. LESSON - When bonds hit second pp & cannot hit 4 point target....EJECT!!!!!

Paper HOLP long @1317.75...This was a bad trade as I realized after that 5 min sq had fired SHORT. Reversed @1316.75 (-1pt x 2) pp@ 15.75, stop moved down to 15.75. Time went on with not much movement. Took off runner @ 14.75 for a net of +1 point. Should have hung in & could have squeezed out another point.

Friday totals: Bonds -2 ticks. Paper es +1 point

Weekly totals: Real $$ -12 bond ticks, -.5 es points. Paper trades 18.5 points!!! This tells me the HOLP/LOHP set up is a good one and I should start trading real $$ with this strategy. Teq & I had said we were going to papert trade this for 2 weeks before starting with real $$. I am temped to jump in now. Next week is the last week of April & I am still way down for othe month. If this set up continues to show promise, I may have to start trading it with 1 contract to recoup some capital.

Lessons learned: Bonds - taking the 2 tick pp on one contract & reloading will work if I eject the runner after the second pp & bonds cannot make it to the 4 tick target. Will adjust this trade.
es - HOLP/LOHP continues to produce positive results. Just have to watch internals & take trades in that direction only.

ON TO NEXT WEEK!!!!!!

etr

No es trades today. Doldrums bond trade was my first stop loss looser at -6 ticks, OUCH! So far I am WAY behind my goal for the month. Have to get better soon or.....or....I'll have to walk the plank!

etr

Had limited time to trade today as I was mentoring a young student in the field of my "other" job, that of Real Estate Appraisal. Did manage to get in a noon time bond trade for +2 ticks. Shouls have been +3 but I mistakenly put in a market order instead of a limit order. After some discussion with teq, we decided to alter this trade set up some to take advantage of the movement of the bonds before they hit the exit target. Instead of doing an "all in - All out" trade, decided to take 1 car off at + 2 ticks & reload if it goes back to the entry target before hitting the exit target. Have seen this happen several times in the past. This way we will at least lock in something if the bonds turn against us. Will monitor this change to see if it adds to the bottom line like I think it will.

Markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday.

Yes, drew a little more blood in the account with a -2 tick exit on the bond trade. Need to work on locking in some gains when the bonds move in my favor. More to follow

Remember that nice little profit I managed to walk away with yesterday? Well, FORGET IT. Gone in two trades today.

The day started off with a bad omen as I hesitated on a long in the globex session around 1301.75. Had long signals in both the 3 & 5 min charts but did not act on it. es promptly went to 1307.75 in nearly a straight line. It then reversed so fast that there was no change of getting a confirmation of the reversal, at least with the indicators that I am using.

Trade 1 came at 10:13 with es sitting at the 1303 area. Got a holp signal buy where teq & I thought the mkt would reverse. But, nope ole' es rolled over & puked on us. Tarde was stopped out at 1301.75. -2 pts.

Trade 2 was a doldrums bond trade. Entered a short at 108 07 @1:41. This one looked good as it went up a tick or 2, then headed down, bounced off the 04 area back to 06, then dropped again. It touched the target of 03 twice but no fill. After wallowing around a bit, the bonds headed higher and I had to exit with a scratch back at 07 around 3pm. What a bummer! Hate to leave $$ on the table but I am trying to be diciplined and trade the plan. Just didn't work today.

Trade 3 was a very, very bad call on my part. ES had tanked to a low of 1289.25 and turned there with some high -1000 tick readings. Made the comment to teq regarding a possible capitulation at this point & the mkt may reverse here. Well we fast came upon the time for the 3:52 trade and didn't I foolishly go short (against the trend of the last 1/2 hour as is in the plan)? I had already forgotten the "capitulation" part & went ahead with the trade anyway; short at 1292.50. Well, it wasn't long before the mkt started to power higher (no more sellers left) & then it dawned on me that I had screwed up. Hit the eject button & got out at 1293.75. -1.25 points

So there you have it, sad but true. Wiped out Mondays gains almost to the dollar. Tomorrow brings another day & we will be ready for it. I will need to be on top of my game as I now have 2 days to make up for, as well as the daily goal for tomorrow.

The first set uo was an HOLP at about 10:45. Went long at 1304, took pp @ 1305 and moved stop up to be @ 03. Stop was moved up systematicly to 04, 05, 06, & 6.50. The runner was stopped out at 1306.50 at 12:43. +3.5 total.

The next trade was a doldrums bond trade at 12:07. Short at 107 31. exited trade at profit target of 107 24 @ 1:27, +4 ticks. (Note: could have then bought 107 25, taken about 3-4 ticks of heat, then exited at 08 around 2:30ish for another bond ching).

Trade 3 was a HOLP long @ 1303.50 at 2:09. This one was stopped out @ 1301.50 at 2:28. -2 points.

Last trade was a 3:52 reversal. Went short at 1304.75, took pp @ 3.75, exited trade at time limit at 1305.25. net +.5

Overall a good day & good start to week. HOLP/LOHP signals continue to look good. Teq & I actually missed 2 that would have been winners. Will keep working them.

etr

The continuing saga of the bond trade from Thursday continues. After waking to find the bonds virtually where they were yesterday....near 108 20, I debated some as to where to take my exit. This is not good and is why you (I) must always TRADE THE PLAN!!!! This takes all emotions out of the trading decision as we strive to become a trading "robot". When I reviewed the action of the bonds overnight I found that they had indeed hit my exit point but my order had not been filled. Decided to leave the order in for a few hours & either get stopped out or not. As we got closer to the unemployment number release at 8:30, the bonds began to drop fast. They hesitated around my entry area for a bit, & I decided enough was enough. I moved my exit up to 108 14, enough to cover commissions and waited. It was soon hit, an fell hard a bit farther. No matter, I was out of my bad situation with a 1 tick profit.

Now, the only other trade on this day was a 3 pm reversal trade that wa a -2.25 looser. WHAT A WEEK! Worst one in several and my account looks like it. The only semi-gratifying thing about it was I realized that Fooser also had not the best of weeks either. Back to the drawing board on Monday to try and shake a little cha-ching out of old es then.

Thursday again did not go well here for the Viking Pirate. Only 2 es trades, one for a +.75 and a second for a -1.25. I am writing this on Sunday 4/9, and I am embarassed to say that I do not recall, nor did I make note of the setups that I was trading at the time. Hmmm, not to swift of me. Do you think that might indicate as small flaw in my trading practice. Well, I'd agree. I will be more dillagent in this area and you can be sure that my trading partner, teq56, will keep my feet to the fire on this one.

Another flaw in my trading on this day occurred during the doldrums bond trade. I entered a short at 108 15 with a target of 108 11. The trade timed out at 3 pm with the bonds at 108 20. Now the rule is to exit at this point no matter what. Did I follow the plan??? Well, no. I held the short, kept my stop at 108 22, and let it run over night. Will update this saga tomorrow. Now, in accordance to the rules of my trading plan, this means that beacuse a rule was broken today, no tarding for me on Friday. I say, should have been. See the next post to find out what happens.

Trade 1: A globex Fooser call, bought 1315.75, took partial profit at 16.75, closed trade at 16.25 for a +1.5 point start.

Trade 2: Bought at 1500 on a holp buy signal but es reversed again and was stopped out at -2.

Trade 3: Doldrums bond trade, sold at 109 07. Bonds were very quiet, only moved a few ticks in the right direction, exited trade at entry for a scratch.

Trade 4: 3:52 reversal trade, bought at 1318.75, sold at 18.75...another scratch.

So, net down -.5 plus commisions. Two less than glamorus days in a row, but losses are controlled and just waiting for the next winner to hit.

Trade#1: Sold es @ 1309 expecting the pivot to repel the move up. Neglected to check internals...put/call was above 1 & es kept motoring higher. Stopped out at 1311. -2 points

Trade #2: doldrum bond trade. Sold 109 07 with target of 04. Only 3 ticks today because of low volume. (4 would have worked today) Targer hit. + 3 ticks

Trade #3: Doldrum bond trade #2. Bought 109 01 with target of 04. Bonds went lower, got as high as 02, closed out trade at 3 pm at 108 30. -3 ticks

Trade #4: Sold es @ 1313 for the 2 pm reversal trade. Closed at 1312.50 at time limit. +.5 (only 1 car fill on this position)

Trade #5: Sold es @ 1313.75 for the 3:52 pm reversal. Closed at 1314.50 at time limit. -.75

Overall not a good day at all. Lessons learned: get better at reading market internals. Holp & lohp are good indicators but es was moving too fast during reversals to catch any trades. Watch candle patterns.....bulls move es up with a few large candles....took bears many candles to erode gains.

Eric the Red will be posting here so we can both keep track of our progress.

RedBeard

First Blog message from Eric the Red. Look here for future datails of the trading sucesses and failures of my daytrading the s&p & bonds. Every failure is another lesson towards success is my motto. Cheers!!!